385,000 Muslim Births & 750,000 Sinhalese Abortions a Year? Find out the truth…

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Population numbers can stir fear in Sri Lanka faster than almost any other topic, especially when they are framed as a contest between ethnic groups. A social media post aimed mainly at Sinhalese and Muslim readers claimed that Sri Lanka records 385,000 Muslim births and 750,000 Sinhalese abortions a year, and that Muslims would become the majority by 2060 unless every Sinhalese family raised more than three children. By our calculation, the post’s birth figure alone is more than eight times the number of births registered to Muslim (Moor) mothers in official data. Here is the post that carried the claim.

Social Media Posts:

The post claimed that Sri Lanka has 385,000 Muslim births and 750,000 Sinhalese abortions a year, and that unless each Sinhalese family raises more than three children, the majority will become Muslim by 2060.

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We set out to verify the claims in this post.

Fact-Check:

The post presented figures on births, abortions, and population growth. It also claimed that unless Sinhalese families had more than three children, Muslims would be the majority of the country’s population by 2060. It cited no official source for any of its figures.

No official data supports 385,000 Muslim births a year

The Department of Census and Statistics is responsible for collecting, analyzing, and publishing official statistics on population, censuses, births, deaths, and economic and social conditions. Births are registered through the civil registration system, and the Registrar General’s Department also publishes birth tables by the mother’s ethnicity. We therefore first checked the claim of 385,000 Muslim births a year against the Department’s official statistics for recent years.

Over the past 26 years (2000 to 2025), total births across all ethnic groups exceeded the post figure in only one year, 2007, when they reached 386,573. In no other year did total births, let alone Muslim births alone, reach that value. The claim of 385,000 Muslim births a year therefore has no basis in official data. Figures for 2021 to 2025 are provisional, and total births in 2025 were 214,570.

Source: here

Over the past decade (2015 to 2025), live births in Sri Lanka declined steadily, apart from a slight rise in 2018. Births fell from 336,097 in 2015 to 214,570 in 2025 (provisional). Between 2019 and 2025 alone, they fell from 319,108 to 214,570, a drop of about 33%. Media have reported on the causes (here, here, here, here and here).

According to the Registrar General’s Department’s official tables, of 284,623 live births registered in 2021, 197,318 were to Sinhalese mothers, 37,822 to Sri Lankan Moor mothers, 35,530 to Sri Lankan Tamil mothers and 12,669 to Indian Tamil mothers (here). In 2018, 46,618 births were registered to Sri Lankan Moor mothers, out of 328,409 in total (here). The post’s figure of 385,000 is therefore more than eight times the registered annual births of the Muslim (Moor) ethnic group (our calculation). These tables are compiled by ethnicity and do not include data by religion.

There is no reliable basis for the claim that Sinhalese women have 750,000 abortions a year

Abortion is generally prohibited by law in Sri Lanka, with a limited exception for abortions performed in good faith to save the mother’s life (Penal Code sections 303 and 304; details here). Because of this, there is no method of obtaining accurate data on illegal and unsafe abortions each year. However, between 2000 and 2025, Sri Lanka’s total annual births ranged from 214,570 (2025) to 386,573 (2007) and never exceeded 500,000 in any year (here).

Against that background, the claim that women of one population group alone have 750,000 abortions a year is baseless. The post’s figure is about 3.5 times the total births registered across all ethnic groups in 2025 (214,570), and about 3.8 times the births registered to Sinhalese mothers in 2021 (197,318) (our calculation).

A September 2019 policy brief by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) (here), based on a 2000 study, said that more than 650 unsafe abortions occur per day. Information published by UNFPA and the Family Planning Association of Sri Lanka (FPA), a leading sexual and reproductive health rights organisation, also puts the figure at about 650 unsafe abortions a day. This is not current data. The UNFPA brief ties the estimate to information from 2000, and a 2023 FPA report says the Health Ministry reported 658 abortions a day in 2016. These figures cannot be treated as current official statistics.

The same FPA report, citing a 2009 publication, gives 125,000 to 175,000 abortions a year (about 700 a day). However, 700 a day is about 255,500 a year, so the figures do not match (our calculation). The UNFPA estimate also concerns unsafe abortions, while the 2016 figure refers to abortions in general, so the two should not be treated as the same measure. No official national or medical record mentions an exaggerated figure like 750,000.

We found no reliable official national data confirming the claim of 750,000 abortions a year. Annualizing the old estimate of 650 to 658 a day gives roughly 237,250 to 240,170 (our calculation), covering all ethnic groups. That too is a calculation from an old daily estimate, not a confirmed current annual figure. Details here, here, here and here.

Because abortion is legally restricted in Sri Lanka, complete official national data on annual abortions is unavailable. When we asked several institutions, including the Health Ministry and the National Child Protection Authority, they said they held no official data on unsafe abortions.

The person who posted the claim provided no official source or reliable evidence for the figure of 750,000. There is therefore insufficient evidence to confirm it. We did not find that official data had disproved the figure. We assessed it as baseless and nearly three times higher than the highest estimates we saw (about 240,000 to 255,000 a year).

The claim that Muslims will be the majority by 2060 is not supported by census data

According to the final report of the 2024 Census of Population and Housing, Sri Lanka’s total population is 21,781,800 (census moment: 00:00 on 19 December 2024; final report launched on 10 April 2026; here).

By ethnicity, the report gives: Sinhalese 16,144,037 (74.12%), Sri Lankan Tamils 2,681,627 (12.31%), Sri Lankan Moors/Muslims 2,283,246 (10.48%) and Indian Tamils/Malaiyaha Tamils 600,360 (2.76%), with other ethnic groups making up the remainder.

At the time of the 2024 census, the Sinhalese were Sri Lanka’s largest ethnic group, at 74.12% of the population. Sri Lankan Moors/Muslims were 10.48%. By religion, 10.7% follow Islam. Details here and here. These data give an important baseline for the current ethnic composition, but they alone cannot determine the future composition.

The post also claimed that unless Sinhalese families had more than three children, the majority ethnic group would be Muslim by 2060. Verifying such a projection scientifically requires many factors, including each group’s age structure, fertility rate, mortality rate, migration, and changes over time. Details here.

According to the 2024 census, Sri Lanka’s total fertility rate (TFR) is 1.3, below replacement level (here). The report’s data also show fertility by ethnicity at 2.0 among Muslim women and 1.2 among Sinhalese women.

The report shows that from 2012 to 2024 the Muslim share of the population rose from 9.3% to 10.5%, while the Sinhalese share fell from 74.9% to 74.1% (here). So, it is true that Muslim fertility is higher than Sinhalese fertility and that the Muslim share has risen slightly. However, the gap between the Sinhalese (74.1%) and Muslim (10.5%) shares in 2024 is 63.6 percentage points, and the Muslim share rose by only 1.2 points between 2012 and 2024. Extending that pace in a straight line to 2060 would give only about 14.1% by simple calculation (our calculation; not a projection).

The 2024 census data show ethnic composition at that time. They do not support the post’s conclusion that Muslims will be the majority by 2060 because Sinhalese families have no more than three children.

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Conclusion:

Our fact check found the viral posts to be false. Posts claimed that Sri Lanka has 385,000 Muslim births and 750,000 Sinhalese abortions a year, and that unless each Sinhalese family has more than three children, the majority will become Muslim by 2060.

According to official data from the Department of Census and Statistics and the Registrar General’s Department, births registered to Sri Lankan Moor mothers were 46,618 in 2018 and 37,822 in 2021. Between 2000 and 2025, total annual births in Sri Lanka exceeded 385,000 only in 2007. There is no official or reliable data for 750,000 abortions, and the figure is nearly three times the highest estimates we saw.

The 2024 census shows the Sinhalese at 74.1% and Sri Lankan Moors/Muslims at 10.5%. Despite differences in fertility, the conclusion that Muslims will be the majority by 2060 is not supported by census data. The post cited no official source for its figures. Before sharing figures that may stir fear and suspicion between ethnic groups, it is important to verify them against official sources.

Note: Birth figures are confirmed by official statistics (figures for 2021 to 2025 are provisional). The abortion figures are old estimates, not official annual statistics.